Sawyers Bar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

610
FXUS66 KMFR 171126
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
426 AM PDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.Updated AVIATION Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...17/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across most of the
region and will do so through the TAF period. Patchy areas of LIFR
conditions in the Coquille Basin and in the vicinity of Brookings
southward will persist through the morning hours, then improve to
VFR by late morning. North Bend should remain VFR this morning under
an offshore flow pattern, but there is a period early this morning
when patchy LIFR ceilings from the Coquille Basin could temporarily
lower conditions. Otherwise, gusty north to northeast winds will
develop across all areas later this morning and persist through the
afternoon. /BR-y

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 AM PDT Thu Apr 17 2025/

SYNOPSIS...

Overall, low impact weather through the forecast period as we`re
just a tad too warm for frost or freeze west of the Cascades.
Thunderstorms could enter the forecast early next week.

DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:
-Warmer than normal conditions persist the next two days.
-Temperatures trend cooler after cold front passage Sunday night.
-Low chances of thunderstorms <10% early next week.

An upper level trough is currently traversing eastern Oregon and
the trough is showing up fairly nicely on GOES 18 via the "Air
Mass RGB". Impacts are non existent here, although there is some
dry air out there as RHs are about 20 percent lower compared to 24
hours ago east of the Cascades. Elsewhere, some marine stratus is
creeping up the coast with Brookings observing some 800 foot
ceilings as of writing this AFD.

It will remain quiet through the day with some light east winds
developing at 4500 feet mid day. Temperatures should remain warmer
than normal west of the Cascades even with some relatively cooler
air moving in behind this trough currently east of the Cascades.

High pressure and 500 mb heights will begin to build into Friday.
This should keep temperatures in 70`s west of the Cascades with
lower 60`s east of the Cascades and mid 60`s along the coast.
Again, no weather impacts anticipated on Friday as well.

Things become more interesting by Saturday as an upper level
shortwave approaches the Oregon coast Saturday morning. We should
see a cold front in the disturbance`s wake. Most of the
precipitation should be to our north, although temperatures take
a slight dip Sunday into Monday.

Another wave will probably dig into the Pacific Northwest around
Sunday afternoon or evening. Some deterministic guidance appears
to pick up on thunderstorms in northern California, although the
NBM only has a 5% chance of precipitation in northern California
Sunday evening, so it seems pretty unlikely anything will form.

As some cooler air does move in, the low temperature forecast is
showing mid 30`s in some of the valleys west of the Cascades.
Right now, the probability of lows less than 34 near Cave Junction
is about 20%.

Ensemble data continues to hint at a trough pattern early next
week and we`ll have to keep an eye out on thunderstorm potential.
The NBM generally keeps PoPs under 10% during this time, although
they do increase up to 20 to 30 percent on Thursday afternoon.

-Smith

MARINE...Updated 200 AM Thursday, April 17th...A thermal trough
will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas to
the coastal waters, with the strongest winds and steepest seas
south of Cape Blanco. The thermal trough will vary in strength
easing back a bit today into Friday. Overall conditions will
remain hazardous to small craft for most areas through Friday, but
very steep and hazardous seas are expected south of Port Orford
beyond 5 nm from shore at times through then. It looks like the
thermal trough will re-strengthen this weekend with strong
northerlies again (and a return of possible gale force winds south
of Cape Blanco) along with steep to very steep seas. -Spilde/BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early
     this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-
     376.

&&

$$